- Bearish Scenario: Sell Below 18800 with TP1: 18656, TP2: 18566, TP3: 18488, and TP4 (Swing): 18329.85, with SL above 18820 or at least 1% of account capital.
Bullish Scenario: Buy Above 18656 with TP: 18747 and TP2: 18800, with SL below 18619 or at least 1% of account capital. Apply trailing stop.
Fundamental Analysis
The FOMC minutes confirm a hawkish stance by the Fed. Recent publications and numerous speeches throughout the week indicate a commitment to keeping rates high for longer than the market speculates, which typically strengthens the USD at the expense of company investments due to financing costs.
Technical Analysis
US100, H1 (Intraday and Swing Outlook)
Average Daily Range (ADR) High: 18808.72
Average Daily Range (ADR) Low: 18518.98
Supply Zones (Sell Zones): 18747.19 / 18885.35
Demand Zones (Buy Zones): 18655.79 / 18329.85
After reaching a new all-time high of 18962.85, the price broke the last significant support of the uptrend at 18619.23. Therefore, a rapid bearish continuation is expected after a rebound towards 18747.19 or 18800, especially with better-than-expected U.S. durable goods orders data.
Sales below 18800 should break the POC of the initial sessions at 18655.79 with candle bodies to confirm the dominance of the bears and consider intraday sales towards the week's opening at 18565.27 and a possible bearish extension below 18488.70 after the Monday, May 27 opening.
Bearish Continuation Towards Demand Zones Next Week:
This scenario will gain momentum with quotes below the sell zones between 18747 and 18885, opening the possibility of continuing sales towards the next demand zone around 18329.85.
False Bearish Breakout and Bullish Continuation:
The possibility that the break of support 18619.23 is a false breakout or trap will be confirmed if the price fails to create a new low below the week's opening at 18565.27 and then rises with strength similar to yesterday's decline over the supply zones 18747.19 and 18885.35. This will indicate that the bulls will continue to dominate next week, aiming to create a new weekly all-time high.
*Uncovered POC: POC = Point of Control: The level or zone where the highest volume concentration occurred. If there was a previous downward movement from it, it is considered a sell zone and forms a resistance zone. Conversely, if there was a previous upward movement, it is considered a buy zone, usually located at lows, forming support zones.
Risk Warning
This analysis does not constitute investment advice or an offer to participate in financial transactions. While all investments carry risks, trading currencies and other leveraged assets can result in significant losses. A thorough understanding of the risks is recommended before investing.
